Impacts
of Exogenous Shocks in Selected Region using GTAP
by Wannaphong
Durongkaveroj
 |
| Photo source: https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/ |
GTAP is a well - documented software
using mainly for generating economic impacts from exogenous shock. GTAP
database is well organized with double account balance containing mainly
bilateral and multilateral trade data among various countries around the world.
GTAP Data Base also provides a consistent snapshot of the global economy. Moreover,
it is possible to extract Social Account Matrices (SAM) and Input - Output
Table from GTAP. To the extent, it is able to use data in applying to many
kinds of analysis, for example, poverty reduction from policy or environmental
impacts.
For data source in GTAP, it is
collected from two main sources. First, regional input - output table,
typically from nationally published input - output tables. Second, data is from
international organizations including merchandise trade data from UN, services
trade data from UN Trade website and EUROSTAT, macroeconomic data from World
Bank Development Indicators, tariff data from MAcMap, income and factor taxes
data from IMF, and energy data from the International Energy Agency.
This paper presents the result in
economy in selected countries including JKC (Japan, South Korea, and China),
ASEAN7 (Malaysia, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Singapore, Philippines, Indonesia),
Thailand, NAFTA countries (Mexico, Canada, and the U.S.), European Union 25,
and Rest of the world (ROW) from three exogenous shocks. In using GTAP, it is
required to aggregate sectors and factors. In this study, I aggregate the data
of various commodities to 6 sectors including food, extraction (mining and
extraction), light manufacturing, heavy manufacturing, construction and
communication, and other services. For factor, I aggregate the data of factors
to four kinds of factor including land, unskilled labor, skilled labor, and
capital.
In
this study, I investigate the effects from three shocks. Firstly, the
scenario of growth in industrial production in Thailand. For very long time,
Thailand try to be more industrialized countries. According to four Year Plan
of Industry, there are many policies, for example, sustainable basis of
industry sector, Improvement of competitive environment (legitimacy and
infrastructure), Industrial Cluster, and productivity. Additionally, Thai
Economy is mostly dependent on export sector and there are many export
supporting policies through FTA or
direct trade. When there are a growth in industrial sector in Thailand, it
automatically increase the tendency to export domestically produced outputs to
trading partner around the world. According to CIA world factbook, Thailand has
7.2 percent growth in industrial production in 2012. Then, my first shock is
7.2 percent in industrial output. Secondly, world population is growing every
year from two potential force including low death rate and high fertility rate
due to an improvement in medical science. Now, world population has already
passed 7 billion thousand people. According to U.N. projection, by 2050,
population in each region will be shown by table below,
According to the table above, by
2050, almost all region will face medium or high population growth led by
Africa and Oceania. However, South - eastern Asia and Northern America will
also contribute to total population. It is too big to ignored. Current population
in North America is (Mexico, Canada, and the U.S.) altogether over 500 million
people. With positive growth rate, it will affect economy as a whole. In case
of big and flourish country, more population may benefit all because labor
force will be increased and dependency rate automatically declines. When
economy has more factor of production, it is normally expected for firm to be
able to produce more output. Output will expand and return to factor may get
higher. However, in case of small and poor country, an increase in population
may lead to an inadequate supply of food and government services to serve them.
Government may have to spend a huge amount of
its budget to take care of them. It is undesirable situation which
currently occur in third world. So, for big three countries in North America,
the impact of population growth may generate a great impact to economy. Then,
the second shock is 0.7 percent increased in population in NAFTA countries.
Thirdly, when there are more
populations in big and flourish countries like the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, it
is expected to produce more output and have more income. Mexico, Canada, and
the U.S. largely together contribute to world output and so do consumption.
According to IMF, three countries’s GDP together isalmost $20,000 Billion (23%
of world GDP at PPP). So, it is a big countries in economic size. Even a small
change there, it will yields a great result in world economy. For GDP, it is
the value of output produced domestically in nation no matter what the nation
of creator. I will imply an increase in GDP of big three countries to be a
change in national income. For the data of GDP, it will be shown by table
below,
2011
|
2012
|
Growth(%)
|
|
CAN
|
1.38
|
1.44
|
4.35
|
MEX
|
1.66
|
1.75
|
5.42
|
US
|
15.23
|
15.88
|
4.27
|
Average
|
4.68
|
According to table, an
average of growth rate in GDP from three big countries is 4.68 and I use this
growth rate to be the third shock which an increase in citizen's income can
create many effects to economy.
In procedure of interpretation of
the result, it is guided by Mary E. Burfisher (2011) and Thomas W. Hertel
(1997). I will explain separately by the result from each of shock and in the
end, I will compare the welfare from three shocks.
1. For the result from first shock,
the effect of industrial production growth in Thailand increases by 7.2% is
shown by table below,
Countries
|
GDP Price Index
|
GDP Quantity Index
|
Change in Value of GDP
|
Private H.H. Demand
|
TOT
|
JKC
|
0.0172
|
0.0023
|
0.0194
|
0.0642
|
0.0248
|
Thailand
|
-1.8008
|
7.0942
|
5.2933
|
33.0877
|
-1.1173
|
ASEAN7
|
0.0457
|
0.0056
|
0.0514
|
0.2572
|
0.0572
|
NAFTA
|
0.0051
|
0.0003
|
0.0054
|
0.0224
|
0.0089
|
EU(25)
|
0.0059
|
0.0004
|
0.0062
|
0.0236
|
0.0059
|
ROW
|
0.0082
|
0.0010
|
0.0092
|
0.0393
|
0.0135
|
According to table above, there is a
decrease in GDP price index or an indicator of inflation by comparing current
GDP to GDP in reference year in Thailand by 1.8 percent which means that when
there is output added to economy, price is likely to go down. for GDP quantity
index, there is a huge increase in GDP Quantity Index by 7.09 percent which
confirm an expansion of industrial growth. For change in value of GDP, it is
obvious that Thailand has economy growth by 5.2 US million and so do other
countries. For private household demand, 33.09 percent increased in Thailand.
It shows that output in industry in Thailand serves domestic demand mainly. For
Term of Trade (price exported i over price imported i) is declined in Thailand
and increased in other countries. It is implied that Thailand loses
competitiveness in export sector from industrial growth.
Countries
|
Output of Capital Good
|
Region H.H. Income
|
Government Consumption Expenditure
|
Private Consumption
|
JKC
|
0.0280
|
0.0082
|
0.0083
|
0.0205
|
Thailand
|
5.5630
|
6.2772
|
6.5113
|
4.9678
|
ASEAN7
|
0.0891
|
0.0427
|
0.0440
|
0.0548
|
NAFTA
|
0.0178
|
0.0018
|
0.0018
|
0.0057
|
EU(25)
|
0.0223
|
0.0024
|
0.0024
|
0.0065
|
According to table above, output of
capital goods in Thailand is increased by 5.56 US million. It is implied that
most of the output from industrial sector in Thailand is capital product. Also,
this shocks contribute to regional household income by 6.27 US million.
However, government consumption expenditure and private consumption also
increase. It tell us that output produced in industrial sector is consumed
mostly in Thailand.
Private Consumption Price
|
JKC
|
Thailand
|
ASEAN7
|
NAFTA
|
EU(25)
|
ROW
|
Food
|
-0.0016
|
-1.8336
|
-0.0379
|
-0.0056
|
-0.0059
|
-0.0069
|
Extraction
|
0.0086
|
-1.2377
|
0.0176
|
0.0019
|
0.0031
|
0.0051
|
L Manuf.
|
0.0041
|
-0.9275
|
-0.0177
|
0.0006
|
0.0016
|
-0.0022
|
H Manuf.
|
0.0001
|
-0.6753
|
-0.0135
|
-0.0006
|
0.0021
|
0.0006
|
Construct.
|
0.0127
|
-1.2282
|
0.0244
|
0.0038
|
0.0030
|
0.0056
|
Other
|
0.0162
|
-0.8372
|
0.0406
|
0.0048
|
0.0053
|
0.0085
|
For private consumption price, in
all region, there is a decline in food sector. For Thailand, there is a
decrease in consumption price in all sector. In other region, a small increase
in price occurs.
Domestic Sales
|
JKC
|
Thailand
|
ASEAN7
|
NAFTA
|
EU(25)
|
ROW
|
Food
|
-0.017
|
6.395
|
-0.040
|
-0.011
|
-0.015
|
-0.010
|
Extraction
|
-0.010
|
8.387
|
-0.054
|
-0.009
|
-0.003
|
-0.008
|
L Manuf.
|
-0.013
|
7.270
|
-0.074
|
-0.004
|
-0.008
|
-0.018
|
H Manuf.
|
-0.022
|
8.270
|
-0.051
|
-0.008
|
-0.007
|
-0.014
|
Construct.
|
0.009
|
6.853
|
0.036
|
0.003
|
0.005
|
0.005
|
Other
|
0.004
|
7.503
|
0.018
|
0.001
|
0.001
|
0.002
|
According to table, there is of
course an increase in sales in Thailand from production growth. However, in
other region, domestic sales is declined. It may be like this scenario because
Thailand export cheap commodity to other region (consider TOT).
Commodity
|
Volume of Global Import
|
Volume of Global Export
|
Value of World Supply
|
Value of World Import
|
Value of World Export
|
Food
|
0.08
|
0.07
|
0.02
|
0.05
|
6.96
|
Extraction
|
0.08
|
0.08
|
0.05
|
0.08
|
11.07
|
L Manuf.
|
0.05
|
0.05
|
0.04
|
0.04
|
5.63
|
H Manuf.
|
0.09
|
0.09
|
0.05
|
0.09
|
5.44
|
Construct.
|
0.08
|
0.09
|
0.04
|
0.07
|
4.09
|
Other
|
0.06
|
0.06
|
0.02
|
0.06
|
4.83
|
For
volume of global import, export, and world supply, heavy manufacturing is affected mostly. For
value of world export, extraction is going up the most by $11.07 million.
Volume of Global Import
|
Volume of Global Export
|
Value of Import
|
Value of Export
|
|
JKC
|
0.060
|
0.009
|
0.044
|
0.017
|
Thailand
|
5.258
|
6.829
|
5.264
|
5.718
|
ASEAN7
|
0.130
|
0.049
|
0.087
|
0.063
|
NAFTA
|
0.020
|
-0.011
|
0.014
|
-0.008
|
EU(25)
|
0.009
|
-0.010
|
0.007
|
-0.006
|
ROW
|
0.029
|
0.001
|
0.021
|
0.006
|
For impact in each region, Thailand
is of course faced an increase in import and also export because the major
proportion of Thai economy is from trade sector.
Volume of World Trade
|
0.078
|
Value of World Trade
|
0.071
|
According to table above, volumn of
world trade is increased by 0.078 percent and value of world trade is increased
by 0.71 percent. It shows that Thailand is a very small country contributed to
world output.
Industry Output
|
JKC
|
Thailand
|
ASEAN7
|
NAFTA
|
EU(25)
|
ROW
|
Land
|
0.000
|
7.200
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
Unskilled L
|
0.000
|
7.200
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
Skilled L
|
0.000
|
7.200
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
Capital
|
0.000
|
7.200
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
Food
|
-0.019
|
6.949
|
-0.039
|
-0.023
|
-0.027
|
-0.018
|
Extraction
|
-0.009
|
9.715
|
-0.087
|
-0.015
|
-0.007
|
0.003
|
L. Manuf.
|
-0.020
|
7.070
|
-0.036
|
-0.007
|
-0.015
|
-0.020
|
H. Manuf.
|
-0.009
|
7.126
|
0.060
|
-0.010
|
-0.015
|
-0.012
|
Construct.
|
0.011
|
6.670
|
0.030
|
0.004
|
0.007
|
0.006
|
Other.
|
0.005
|
7.389
|
0.006
|
0.002
|
0.004
|
0.003
|
Capital Goods
|
0.028
|
5.563
|
0.089
|
0.018
|
0.022
|
0.023
|
For industry output, Thailand is only one country which enjoy an
expansion in all sector. However, in construction, other service and capital
good, all region enjoys output growth.
WELFARE
|
Allocation
|
Endowm.
|
TECH
|
POP
|
TOT
|
IS
|
Total
|
JKC
|
200.91
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
585.50
|
-141.40
|
645.01
|
Thailand
|
2205.57
|
12954.92
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1994.89
|
279.78
|
13445.36
|
ASEAN7
|
57.31
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
356.71
|
-21.72
|
392.30
|
NAFTA
|
49.22
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
173.23
|
46.62
|
269.06
|
EU(25)
|
62.44
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
338.21
|
-49.92
|
350.72
|
ROW
|
126.65
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
541.26
|
-113.36
|
554.55
|
Total
|
2702.09
|
12954.92
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
15657.00
|
For the last result shown for the
first shock, total welfare is decomposed by many factors including allocation
efficiency, endowment efficiency, technology, population, term of trade, and
IS. Then, total contribution from all effect is $13,445.36 US million in
Thailand and followed by JKC and ROW. Total world effect is almost $16 US
billion.
2. For the result of second shock,
population growth in North America by 0.7 percent.
Countries
|
GDP Price Index
|
GDP Quantity Index
|
Change in Value of GDP
|
Private H.H. Demand
|
TOT
|
JKC
|
-0.0001
|
-0.0001
|
-0.0003
|
-0.0029
|
-0.0005
|
Thailand
|
0.0005
|
0.0000
|
0.0004
|
-0.0010
|
0.0001
|
ASEAN7
|
0.0005
|
0.0000
|
0.0004
|
-0.0016
|
0.0000
|
NAFTA
|
-0.0010
|
0.0003
|
-0.0007
|
0.2643
|
0.0000
|
EU(25)
|
0.0001
|
0.0000
|
0.0001
|
-0.0012
|
-0.0001
|
ROW
|
0.0009
|
-0.0001
|
0.0008
|
-0.0004
|
0.0004
|
From the effect of population growth
in NAFTA region, GDP price index is decreased in that region. However, GDP
Quantity Index is increased the most due to more labor force for producing
output which lead to 0.004 US Million increased in GDP. Additionally, NAFTA
region is only one region which have more private household demand. However,
Term of Trade left unchanged in almost all countries.
Countries
|
Output of Capital Good
|
Region H.H. Income
|
Government Consumption Expenditure
|
Private Consumption
|
JKC
|
-0.0009
|
-0.0003
|
-0.0003
|
-0.0003
|
Thailand
|
-0.0013
|
0.0001
|
0.0001
|
0.0001
|
ASEAN7
|
-0.0009
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
NAFTA
|
0.0010
|
0.0003
|
-0.0032
|
0.0014
|
EU(25)
|
-0.0005
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
ROW
|
-0.0003
|
0.0001
|
0.0001
|
0.0001
|
According to table above, output of
capital goods declines in almost all countries except three countries in NAFTA.
JKC is only one countries which regional household income decreased. For
government consumption, it decreases in JKC and NAFTA. However, 0.0014 US
million increased in NAFTA countries.
Private Consumption Price
|
JKC
|
Thailand
|
ASEAN7
|
NAFTA
|
EU(25)
|
ROW
|
Food
|
0.0029
|
0.0064
|
0.0059
|
0.0256
|
0.0018
|
0.0038
|
Extraction
|
0.0007
|
0.0010
|
0.0008
|
0.0019
|
0.0004
|
0.0009
|
L Manuf.
|
0.0000
|
0.0001
|
0.0001
|
-0.0008
|
0.0001
|
0.0004
|
H Manuf.
|
0.0000
|
0.0002
|
0.0001
|
-0.0006
|
0.0001
|
0.0004
|
Construct.
|
-0.0001
|
0.0001
|
0.0001
|
-0.0012
|
0.0001
|
0.0006
|
Other
|
-0.0003
|
-0.0001
|
-0.0001
|
-0.0017
|
0.0001
|
0.0005
|
For private consumption price, the
most increased in price is food sector and so do in Thailand, ASEAN7, NAFTA,
EU, and ROW.
Domestic Sales
|
JKC
|
Thailand
|
ASEAN7
|
NAFTA
|
EU(25)
|
ROW
|
Food
|
0.0026
|
0.0020
|
0.0011
|
0.1018
|
0.0024
|
0.0017
|
Extraction
|
0.0000
|
-0.0001
|
-0.0002
|
0.0415
|
0.0005
|
-0.0006
|
L Manuf.
|
-0.0005
|
-0.0005
|
-0.0007
|
0.0029
|
-0.0002
|
-0.0012
|
H Manuf.
|
-0.0002
|
-0.0004
|
-0.0007
|
0.0028
|
-0.0002
|
-0.0013
|
Construct.
|
-0.0004
|
-0.0004
|
-0.0005
|
-0.0012
|
-0.0002
|
-0.0003
|
Other
|
-0.0002
|
0.0001
|
-0.0001
|
-0.0054
|
-0.0001
|
-0.0001
|
For domestic sales, food sector
enjoy an expansion in all region, especially NAFTA. NAFTA also enjoy an
increase sales in extraction, light and heavy manufacturing. However,
construction and communication sector are decreased in all regions.
Commodity
|
Volume of Global Import
|
Volume of Global Export
|
Value of World Supply
|
Value of World Import
|
Value of World Export
|
Food
|
0.01035
|
0.00964
|
0.02324
|
0.01767
|
0.01767
|
Extraction
|
0.00286
|
0.00294
|
0.00787
|
0.00368
|
0.00381
|
L Manuf.
|
0.00004
|
0.00005
|
0.00016
|
0.00002
|
0.00002
|
H Manuf.
|
-0.00002
|
-0.00002
|
0.00019
|
0.00005
|
0.00005
|
Construct.
|
-0.00070
|
0.00004
|
-0.00068
|
-0.00060
|
0.00014
|
Other
|
-0.00048
|
-0.00048
|
-0.00250
|
-0.00068
|
-0.00068
|
For effect in trade, food sector is
still the most affected sector by both importing and exporting.
Volume of Global Import
|
Volume of Global Export
|
Value of Import
|
Value of Export
|
|
JKC
|
-0.0010
|
0.0002
|
-0.0120
|
0.0003
|
Thailand
|
-0.0005
|
0.0000
|
0.0025
|
0.0004
|
ASEAN7
|
-0.0006
|
-0.0001
|
0.0008
|
0.0002
|
NAFTA
|
0.0044
|
0.0037
|
0.1565
|
0.0040
|
EU(25)
|
-0.0002
|
0.0002
|
0.0003
|
0.0003
|
ROW
|
0.0000
|
-0.0001
|
-0.0001
|
0.0007
|
According to table above, NAFTA is
only region which has positive import. Additionally, NAFTA also enjoy an
increase in export. However, net export is still negative.
Volume of World Trade
|
0.00058
|
Value of World Trade
|
0.000913
|
For effect in world, volume and
value of world trade increase.
Industry Output
|
JKC
|
Thailand
|
ASEAN7
|
NAFTA
|
EU(25)
|
ROW
|
Land
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
Unskilled L
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
Skilled L
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
Capital
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
Food
|
0.0033
|
0.0046
|
0.0029
|
0.0806
|
0.0049
|
0.0046
|
Extraction
|
0.0002
|
0.0010
|
0.0005
|
0.0368
|
0.0014
|
0.0007
|
L. Manuf.
|
-0.0005
|
-0.0007
|
-0.0010
|
0.0036
|
-0.0003
|
-0.0018
|
H. Manuf.
|
-0.0001
|
-0.0007
|
-0.0008
|
0.0036
|
-0.0003
|
-0.0020
|
Construct.
|
-0.0003
|
-0.0004
|
-0.0004
|
-0.0011
|
-0.0001
|
-0.0004
|
Other.
|
-0.0002
|
0.0000
|
-0.0001
|
-0.0051
|
-0.0002
|
-0.0003
|
Capital Goods
|
-0.0009
|
-0.0013
|
-0.0009
|
0.0010
|
-0.0005
|
-0.0003
|
From table above, it presents
industry output. I found that there is increase in output in food, extraction,
light and heavy manufacturing sector and decrease in construction and other
services sector. This scenario is also faced by all other region. For capital
goods, there is an increase in NAFTA while a decrease in all other regions.
WELFARE
|
Allocation
|
Endowm.
|
TECH
|
POP
|
TOT
|
IS
|
Total
|
JKC
|
-13.29
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-11.60
|
4.46
|
-20.44
|
Thailand
|
-0.06
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.15
|
0.14
|
0.23
|
ASEAN7
|
-0.28
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-0.31
|
0.58
|
-0.01
|
NAFTA
|
-34828.14
|
-70061.10
|
0.00
|
104940.04
|
0.52
|
-9.67
|
41.65
|
EU(25)
|
-5.14
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-4.26
|
2.15
|
-7.25
|
ROW
|
-8.03
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
15.51
|
2.34
|
9.82
|
Total
|
-34854.93
|
-70061.10
|
0.00
|
104940.04
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
24.00
|
For
contribution of all factors, NAFTA enjoy an increase in welfare by 41.65 US
million mostly by population growth and followed by ROW. However, JKC has a
decrease in welfare from Term of Trade and Allocation inefficiency.
3.
For the result in third shock, household income increased by 4. 4.68 percent.
Countries
|
GDP Price Index
|
GDP Quantity Index
|
Change in Value of GDP
|
Private H.H. Demand
|
TOT
|
JKC
|
-1.800
|
-0.063
|
-1.863
|
-1.753
|
-0.662
|
Thailand
|
-1.288
|
-0.046
|
-1.334
|
-0.941
|
-0.115
|
ASEAN7
|
-1.265
|
-0.014
|
-1.279
|
-0.824
|
-0.188
|
NAFTA
|
4.090
|
0.154
|
4.244
|
33.897
|
3.384
|
EU(25)
|
-2.045
|
-0.003
|
-2.048
|
-1.589
|
-0.499
|
ROW
|
-1.563
|
-0.062
|
-1.624
|
-1.368
|
-0.424
|
According to table above, NAFTA is
only one region enjoying an increase in GDP quantity index, positive change in
the value of GDP, private household demand, and improvement of Terms of Trade.
However, positive GDP price index means inflation. Then, we can expect a higher
level of commodity in Mexico, Canada, and the U.S.
Countries
|
Output of Capital Good
|
Region H.H. Income
|
Government Consumption Expenditure
|
Private Consumption
|
JKC
|
-5.273
|
-1.898
|
-0.388
|
-1.889
|
Thailand
|
-6.527
|
-1.348
|
-0.287
|
-1.339
|
ASEAN7
|
-5.409
|
-1.293
|
-0.289
|
-1.286
|
NAFTA
|
-3.923
|
9.046
|
5.485
|
9.034
|
EU(25)
|
-7.009
|
-2.076
|
-0.259
|
-2.073
|
ROW
|
-5.284
|
-1.649
|
-0.315
|
-1.640
|
According to table, NAFTA is also
only one region which enjoy output of capital goods, regional household income.
Additionally, there is an increase in government consumption and private
consumption.
Private Consumption Price
|
JKC
|
Thailand
|
ASEAN7
|
NAFTA
|
EU(25)
|
ROW
|
Food
|
-1.21
|
-0.74
|
-0.86
|
2.37
|
-1.61
|
-1.17
|
Extraction
|
-1.56
|
-1.25
|
-1.22
|
3.08
|
-1.82
|
-1.44
|
L Manuf.
|
-1.42
|
-1.24
|
-1.13
|
1.99
|
-1.69
|
-1.33
|
H Manuf.
|
-1.44
|
-1.24
|
-1.12
|
2.05
|
-1.64
|
-1.29
|
Construct.
|
-1.68
|
-1.29
|
-1.20
|
3.57
|
-1.88
|
-1.49
|
Other
|
-1.75
|
-1.02
|
-1.20
|
3.97
|
-1.95
|
-1.53
|
According
to table above, all region has a decrease in consumption price in all sectors
except NAFTA.
Domestic Sales
|
JKC
|
Thailand
|
ASEAN7
|
NAFTA
|
EU(25)
|
ROW
|
Food
|
0.54
|
0.20
|
0.06
|
-1.13
|
0.68
|
0.31
|
Extraction
|
0.47
|
0.10
|
0.15
|
-3.11
|
0.52
|
0.30
|
L Manuf.
|
0.64
|
-1.35
|
0.01
|
-3.84
|
0.21
|
-0.38
|
H Manuf.
|
0.62
|
0.37
|
0.38
|
-6.15
|
0.17
|
-0.13
|
Construct.
|
-1.62
|
-1.45
|
-1.41
|
0.04
|
-1.91
|
-1.42
|
Other
|
-0.22
|
0.01
|
-0.09
|
3.47
|
-0.29
|
-0.14
|
For domestic sales, domestic
producer in most region enjoy increased sales. However, in NAFTA, only
construction, communication, and other services have an expansion in domestic
sales. It may be because when people has more income, they enjoy more imported
goods.
Commodity
|
Volume of Global Import
|
Volume of Global Export
|
Value of World Supply
|
Value of World Import
|
Value of World Export
|
Food
|
-0.56
|
-0.54
|
-0.58
|
-1.16
|
-1.07
|
Extraction
|
0.13
|
0.20
|
-0.88
|
-1.01
|
-0.92
|
L Manuf.
|
0.57
|
0.54
|
-1.01
|
-0.38
|
-0.38
|
H Manuf.
|
-0.32
|
-0.32
|
-1.58
|
-1.32
|
-1.30
|
Construct.
|
-0.16
|
-0.17
|
-1.38
|
-1.31
|
-1.38
|
Other
|
-0.39
|
-0.39
|
1.27
|
-1.08
|
-1.08
|
For trading sector, increase in
personal income in NAFTA causes an increase in volume of global export in
extraction, light and heavy manufacturing sector but decrease in food,
construction, and other services. But for value of import and export, all sector
declines.
Volume of Global Import
|
Volume of Global Export
|
Value of Import
|
Value of Export
|
|
JKC
|
-1.28
|
4.99
|
-2.21
|
3.40
|
Thailand
|
-0.42
|
1.98
|
-1.56
|
0.73
|
ASEAN7
|
-0.60
|
1.45
|
-1.59
|
0.27
|
NAFTA
|
5.32
|
-22.09
|
5.19
|
-18.83
|
EU(25)
|
-1.25
|
3.52
|
-2.62
|
1.65
|
ROW
|
-1.57
|
2.69
|
-2.61
|
1.23
|
For regional analysis, NAFTA import
much by 5 US milllion but export declines by 18 million US. It causes trade
deficit in NAFTA while other regions's export increase. It is implied that
other regions export their commodity to NAFTA and enjoy their trade surplus.
Volume of World Trade
|
-0.06
|
Value of World Trade
|
-1.04
|
For the world trade, value of world
trade declines by $1.04 US million.
Industry Output
|
JKC
|
Thailand
|
ASEAN7
|
NAFTA
|
EU(25)
|
ROW
|
Land
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Unskilled L
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Skilled L
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Capital
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Food
|
0.60
|
0.40
|
0.22
|
-2.81
|
1.06
|
0.58
|
Extraction
|
0.59
|
0.76
|
0.17
|
-7.08
|
1.49
|
1.50
|
L. Manuf.
|
2.09
|
0.05
|
1.34
|
-6.76
|
1.33
|
0.52
|
H. Manuf.
|
1.60
|
1.38
|
1.10
|
-10.28
|
1.83
|
0.71
|
Construct.
|
-1.50
|
-1.16
|
-1.24
|
-0.28
|
-1.57
|
-1.23
|
Other.
|
-0.14
|
0.19
|
0.09
|
2.99
|
-0.03
|
0.08
|
Capital Goods
|
-5.27
|
-6.53
|
-5.41
|
-3.92
|
-7.01
|
-5.28
|
According to table above, it
presents industry output. NAFTA does not
enjoy growth in industry output which is opposite to all other region. This
scenario may be the answer of previous table that why NAFTA is only one country
which has trade deficit.
WELFARE
|
Allocation
|
Endow
|
TECH
|
POP
|
TOT
|
IS
|
Total
|
JKC
|
-5659.67
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-16337.83
|
-7965.22
|
-29962.72
|
Thailand
|
-113.63
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-253.77
|
-225.37
|
-592.78
|
ASEAN7
|
-146.08
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-1329.46
|
-1097.05
|
-2572.58
|
NAFTA
|
25425.35
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
63991.25
|
27211.82
|
116628.42
|
EU(25)
|
-483.07
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-28764.62
|
-8903.15
|
-38150.84
|
ROW
|
-7631.68
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-17305.55
|
-9021.14
|
-33958.37
|
Total
|
11391.23
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.02
|
-0.11
|
11391.14
|
For
welfare which measure by contribution from many factor, NAFTA is only one
region enjoying a positive welfare improvement by $116,628.42 US Million.
Lastly,
I compare the total world welfare effect from three shock. The result is shown
by table below,
Sim1
|
Sim2
|
Sim3
|
|
JKC
|
-20.44
|
645.01
|
-29962.72
|
Thailand
|
0.23
|
13445.36
|
-592.78
|
ASEAN7
|
-0.01
|
392.30
|
-2572.58
|
NAFTA
|
41.65
|
269.06
|
116628.42
|
EU(25)
|
-7.25
|
350.72
|
-38150.84
|
ROW
|
9.82
|
554.55
|
-33958.37
|
Total
|
24.00
|
15657.00
|
11391.14
|
According to table, world welfare is
improved much from second shock or an increase in population in NFTA due to its
large economic size.
So, this paper try to present the
effect from exogenous shock to economy around selected region using GTAP. World
economy is interdependence. Any small change in one region is able to create a
lot of positive or negative impact to welfare of world population.
Reference:
Karen M. Huff and Thomas W. Hertel. (2000).
Decomposing Welfare Changes in the GTAP
Model. Center of Global Trade
Analysis, Purdue University.
Mary E. Burfisher.
(2011). Introduction to
Computable General Equilibrium. New York: Cambridge University Press
Philip Harslett.
(2013). The GTAP Data Base
Construction Procedure. Center of
Global Trade Analysis, Purdue
University.
Thomas W. Hertel.
(1997). Global Trade Analysis
Modeling and Applications. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Website
Industrial Growth retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2089rank.html
Thailand Industry Plan retrieved from http://www1.industry.go.th/industry/index.php/modules-menu/2013-09-14-00-44-38/-2553-2556/331--2553-2556/file
GDP of North America Region retrieved from http://www.imf.org
Population Growth retrieved from http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf
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